The UK does not produce enough food.

Adapted from BMJ 7-14 Feb 2026 Professor Paul Behrens, University of Oxford.

A government requested study, Global Biodiversity Loss, Ecosystem Collapse, and National Security, makes for grim reading. There is an impeding and serious threat to UK food security, economic stability, and national security.

Britain relies on imports of both food and fertiliser. 40% of our food is imported. A quarter of this comes from the Mediterranean, which is experiencing climate stress and ecosystem loss. 60% of our fertiliser is imported, so is dependent on overseas production.

The UK has very little in the way of food or fertiliser buffers. There is a food stockpile, but it will only last 9 months.

Sweden, Norway and Germany are all rebuilding stocks, for the first time since the cold war. It would be sensible to join them.

Brazil supplies 54% of soybean imports. This is mainly used to feed livestock. But the Amazon is approaching an irreversible tipping point. It is likely to shift to savannah. This would be catastrophic for the whole world.

We can expect rising food prices. Estimates from 2023 indicate that a third of food price rise was related to climate change.

To counteract this we need to do four things:

We need to eat more plants. We need to eat less meat. Presently 85% of agricultural land is used to rear livestock. This change would free up land.

We need to move rapidly towards domestic food production. This means supporting farmers to produce more fruit and vegetables. This would need investing in agricultural research as farmers in the UK would also have to adapt to climate change.

The UK government needs to give more money to international climate finance to protect critical food producing ecosystems. Unfortunately this has been progressively cut rather than increased.

The public need to become aware of the problem and be advised how to prepare for hard times in the future. Sweden and Finland are already doing this. Food access and nutritional inequalities need to be addressed.

It is a strange relief to finally have the UK’s national security apparatus onboard: ecosystem collapse is a national security threat. Do we sit on our hands now and wait till prices spike and meat becomes unaffordable? Do we act now?

The choice belongs to policy makers and the pressure that civil society can bring to bear on them. The consequences will be felt by everyone across the UK.